According to the meteorological department, the monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on 27 May. Rainfall may occur in several states before then. Meanwhile, the monsoon’s arrival in Rajasthan is expected between 18 and 20 June. The IMD has previously predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. It has ruled out the possibility of an El Niño situation, which is associated with below-normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.
Indications of an Early Arrival
There has been an increase in the influence of westerly winds over the southern part of the Bay of Bengal, the Nicobar Islands, and the Andaman Sea. This suggests the monsoon is expected to advance rapidly. ‘Outgoing Longwave Radiation’ (OLR) has decreased in these areas, indicating cloudy conditions. OLR is a measure of the energy emitted from the Earth. These conditions point towards an early arrival of the monsoon, suggesting that the monsoon will arrive in Rajasthan earlier than usual.
Monsoon Arrival in Rajasthan over the Past 6 Years
The normal arrival time of the monsoon in Rajasthan is 25 June. However, this year, the monsoon may arrive 5 to 7 days earlier than scheduled. In 2024, the monsoon arrived on 25 June. In 2023, it arrived on 25 June; in 2022, on 30 June; in 2021, on 18 June; in 2020, on 24 June; and in 2019, on 24 June.
Early Arrival After 16 Years
The southwest monsoon usually arrives in Kerala on 1 June. If it arrives earlier this year, it will be the first time since 2009. The monsoon arrived on 23 May in 2009. The official announcement of the monsoon’s arrival in India is made when it reaches Kerala. The southwest monsoon spreads across the entire country by 8 July and begins to gradually retreat from northwest India from 17 September.